We’ve had some great presentations and discussions about mobile research, emotional hot states (BrainJuicer), passive measurement and privacy.

And today I’ll be talking about (a) futuring tools and (b) market research futures.

With this in mind, I’ll give a sneak peek on my presentation.

In a VUCA world (volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous) the future is less continuous with the past and we’re in a much less predictable environment.

With this predictive ability in doubt, it is best to look at futures drivers, sketch the most plausible futures and strategize accordingly.

A lot has been discussed in terms of internal analysis of market research and its structure. But, the industry is facing massive, exogenous change to our commercial system and this change will impact MR. This is where I will highlight the 6Ds that will change commerce – and ultimately MR:

1. Disruption Ethos
2. Disintermediation
3. Digitization
4. Dematerialization
5. Democratization
6. DIY

After this, I’ll be discussing the 5 megatrends specifically facing our industry (based on my chapter in “Leading Edge Marketing Research”):

1. Data abundance
2. Asking-Observing Shift
3. Democratization
4. Convergence
5. Strategic Imperative

And then I’ll wrap up with a tour of several MR futures from my book chapter:

1. Power to the People
2. Portal Power
3. E-Agency

It should be a fun and thought provoking session.

And, that rating will come from other people – users, consumers, citizens, colleagues.

That is the premise of my article in The Futurist magazine. You can read it online here.

This is already happening now with Angie’s List, Yelp, Glassdoor, etc.

Oink experimented with this with their app.

Stamped is trying a version of this now, but only on things people “like best”.

To my thinking, there are several BIG and open questions about how this develops:

1. Will one, universal rating system and app emerge? Or, will ratings systems simply multiply and specialize?
2. How will these ratings systems merge with augmented reality? They will, but how? Will we use different rating layers on our heads up displays? This is not far fetched. Think Google’s Project Glass.
3. How will the data streams from these ratings systems be used by institutions, marketers and manufacturers?

The consequences for people, institutions and marketers (and by extension market researchers) are huge.

First, we can expect some social discomfort with having the prospect of everyone around us rate us. Cory Doctorow explored this best in his book “Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom” with the concept of social currency based on a rating scheme.

Enter Barry Wellman’s concept of “coveillance” – surveillance by our peer group or digital tribe.

My money is on a handful of rating sites becoming the global standard and integrating into augmented reality tools at the end of the decade.

What are the implications for marketing research?

First, these emerging rating systems could disrupt EFM systems or possibly be harnessed by them.

Second, marketers will have a team monitor these rating streams and associated comments in real-time in order to optimize the product and hunt for new need states. Plenty of ethnographic work will be launched based on these real-time ratings and their associated comments. I would expect Disney to take a lead role here with their culture of “plus it up.”

Third, there goes the tracking study. The future of marketing research in a data abundant world is not managing research projects, but managing information flows and laddering them up to strategy.

But, one thing I don’t think we talk about enough are the aesthetics of our reports and presentations.

I think this is because MR grew up in a world where data was scarce and valuable and simply churning out large presentations with numerous bar graphs was enough.

But, I am now convinced that aesthetics and knowledge compression via “infographics”, “data visualization” and good design will quickly become a make-or-break differentiator for both suppliers and departments.

There are several reasons why I write this:

1. Time compression: No one has the time to methodically go thru a 120 slide “super deck”. Certainly not executives.

2. Democratization of Design: Seemingly everyone these days is looking to leverage quality design to aid the sale of their products, and this is as true in tangible products as it is in professional services. The tools are now widely available.

3. Complexity: Along with time compression things have simply become more complex and “infographics” can help cut through the clutter and complexity and simplify large amounts of information.

4. Story: As an industry I believe that we are generally weak at telling the story inside the information. Advances in data visualization fused with storytelling can bring a complex set of insights to life for time compressed executives.

5. Competition: With so much open source information, firms that can simple arrange syndicated work with open source data, glean insight and communicate with clarity (and flair) can challenge traditional (data collection focused but aesthetically weak) incumbents.

Here are some books I recommend for their thinking on this:

1. “resonate” by Nancy Duarte
2. “A Whole New Mind” by Daniel Pink
3. “Visualize This” by Nathan Yau
4. “The Substance of Style” by Virginia Postrel (also one of my favorite authors)

RPM

Here they are:

Big Idea #1: Beyond the Database

I alluded in the book to the fact that we have moved from a world where information is scarce to one where it is abundant and that this has huge implications for MR. One consequence is the idea of “the river” of information. Another is so-called “Big Data”. And yet another is the primacy of screening, sifting and analyzing over collecting. So far, so good. Any reasonably clued in observer gets this.

But, there are two very big problems we’re going to get hit with shortly that I don’t hear enough about.

Problem #1 is that the amount of information we have is going to explode in a way that will astonish even the experts. RFID tags and their progeny will be in EVERYTHING. Smart phone ubiquity will make user-generated content explode. Location-based data will explode. The “river” is going to be more like an ocean. Assuming privacy concerns in some quarters are navigated (and I think they will be), “Big data” is going to be very big business.

Problem #2 grows out of the success that we will have in solving the first problem. We will harness this information. We will make life better because of this – in targeted products, in better efficiency, and in wellness applications. But, the weak link is going to be our knowledge management systems. There is data. It becomes information. Then we turn it into knowledge. The challenge is going to be banking, and organizing this knowledge in ways that allow us humans to build on what we know. I think that three things will flow from this challenge:

1. We will spend a considerable amount of time developing insight or knowledge taxonomies (I spent the last year developing one for StrategyOne).

2. Insight Management will play a critical role in the coming decades.

3. We will build systems in which the insights in an insight management system are programmed to find and communicate with the right people in the organization. You’ll have an insight management dashboard capable of displaying insights by domain and by category (building blocks, gamechangers, outliers, etc.), but the insights will also find you. Individuals within the organization will be tagged for alerts of new insights in their focus areas. This will come to you in video-game format as an avatar contacting you with new knowledge you should absorb.

We talk about “databases” today. We will need to develop insights management systems and the language to describe them. Just as we use the term “database” today, we will have common words for this insights system in the future. The more success we have in uncovering new knowledge through “big data”, the more we will need to strengthen our insights management systems.

Big Idea #2: “Rateocracy”

Everyone recognizes words like “technocracy” (rule by a technical elite), “democracy” (rule by the people), “theocracy”, etc.

But freedom, ubiquitous personal computing, and social networks are ushering in “rateocracy” – rule by raters. Today you can rate restaurants (Yelp!), employers (Glassdoor.com), bosses (eBossWatch), eBay sellers, college professors (ratemyprofessors.com), and other people (honestly.com).

At some point everything and (almost) everyone will have a rating.

Don’t believe me?

Think about Facebook “likes” today. Now think about what can be done as Facebook expands this to other “verbs”.

Rateocracy will give marketers a very tight feedback loop. I suspect that it will drive the growth of RIMEing (rapid, in market experimentation). But, it will also drive the use of in the moment, follow-up research clarifying why a consumer rated a product or experience as X. This will make the current net promoter score look rather quaint.

RPM

Writing what became titled “The Futures of Marketing Research” and designated the epilogue was a labor of love.

In this epilogue I developed 22 potential futures for the research industry.

Interestingly, I faced two challenges in writing this chapter.

The first was the challenge of language. Thinking about potential futures means exploring things that have not been created yet. And one natural limitation is language. In some cases I had to invent language to describe some of the things that I anticipate. Some of these words and phrases were: RIMEing (rapid, in market experimentation), IIS (iterative Insight Streaming), ACS (anticipatory customer strategies), “nannytargeting”, etc.

The second challenge was overcoming my own fear that some of the industry scenarios I developed seemed a bit far fetched. But, here I leaned heavily on the famous futurist Jim Dator and his well known statement that “any useful statement about the futures should appear to be ridiculous.”

And this leads me to the six people that I need to thank for the epilogue.

First, I need to thank Jim Dator. His speech at The Market Research Event in Las Vegas several years ago was so interesting, divisive (MR folks either loved it or hated it) and thought provoking that I kept adding notes to my notes on his speech. He remains one of the most impressive pure thinkers I have ever shared a room with.

Next up is Peter Bishop at the University of Houston. Peter is a well-known, and well-published futurist. He is one of the few exceptionally smart people that I have met who has a kindness that matches his intellect. His one week course on strategic foresight was unforgetable and my fellow students only added to the experience.

Next is Ian Lewis at Cambiar. Ian penned the first chapter of Leading Edge Marketing Research with Simon Chadwick and has written extensively about NewMR. I learn something every time I talk with him. I was so impressed with him that I invited him to address my firm’s senior leaders.

Next is Lenny Murphy. Lenny has his eyes on the horizon of research more than anyone I know and his categorical knowledge of which firms are doing what is impressive. Plus, Lenny is just a kick-ass guy. I wish he was my neighbor.

And finally I owe a big thank you to Sparky Zivin and Barbara Coons (colleagues at StrategyOne). They proofed my writing and offered helpful and unvarnished feedback. I can honestly say that as I commute to work each morning I look forward to seeing them in the halls, at their desks and around the coffee machine.

My next piece will cover how my thinking has evolved since I wrote the epilogue.

http://www.strategyone.com/documents/QuirksAprilArticle.pdf?i=65131&p=24

http://www.strategyone.com/documents/CASRO%20Presentation%20Futures%20of%20MR.pdf

Here I outline the 5 Megatrends facing the industry and 22 plausible futures based on these trends.

It will be THE tour de force of nextgen market research, covering every new innovation in the field and rich with insights about the futures of the industry.

To learn more, check out Sage Publishing’s website: http://www.sagepub.com/books/Book235437/toc

I truly enjoyed writing the epilogue – “The Future of Marketing Research”

For a full list of authors, click here:
http://www.leadingedgemarketingresearch.com/id9.html

http://bit.ly/gFm0W8

I’m looking forward to discussing these topics, but especially privacy, at the Technology Driven Market Research Event.

WARC notes that “Procter & Gamble, the FMCG giant, is combining consumer insights and its global reach to pursue ‘purpose-driven branding’ around the world.”

After reading Rachel Botsman’s book regarding collaborative consumption, I wrote this back in November 2010:

“And, when it comes to external change, the world Botsman paints suggests some extreme levels of change in product innovation (crowdsourced), branding (from status to purpose and me to we), product usage (shared) and product lifecycle (longer). It’s no exageration to say that the future she paints would turn marketing and marketing research upside down.

If she’s right, brands will become much more about shared purpose and passion. And, they will be built or destroyed by a corporation’s reputation. But, this reputation element will no longer be ethereal. As I’ve noted before and as Botsman states in her book, by the end of the decade we are likely to have a kind of online reputational currency for both people and corporations (she calls these “reputation bank accounts”).”

I now think it is clearer than ever that brands as we know them will evolve much more toward a shared purpose model, for several reasons:

1. Social media and crowdsourcing will, over time, habituate consumers to thinking more about “we” rather than “me” when it comes to brands and products.

2. As the top-down, broadcast-driven brand model collapses marketers and consumers will join together more closely to jointly define brands and products.

3. Marketing in the developing world will take on a greater development focus by attaching a brand’s purpose to the social aspirations of the target country. In this instance, I think education-literacy, clean water, and equal rights for women are strong candidates for purpose connection.

And, ultimately, it wouldn’t suprise me if brand migrates entirely to purpose and reputation.