We’ve had some great presentations and discussions about mobile research, emotional hot states (BrainJuicer), passive measurement and privacy.

And today I’ll be talking about (a) futuring tools and (b) market research futures.

With this in mind, I’ll give a sneak peek on my presentation.

In a VUCA world (volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous) the future is less continuous with the past and we’re in a much less predictable environment.

With this predictive ability in doubt, it is best to look at futures drivers, sketch the most plausible futures and strategize accordingly.

A lot has been discussed in terms of internal analysis of market research and its structure. But, the industry is facing massive, exogenous change to our commercial system and this change will impact MR. This is where I will highlight the 6Ds that will change commerce – and ultimately MR:

1. Disruption Ethos
2. Disintermediation
3. Digitization
4. Dematerialization
5. Democratization
6. DIY

After this, I’ll be discussing the 5 megatrends specifically facing our industry (based on my chapter in “Leading Edge Marketing Research”):

1. Data abundance
2. Asking-Observing Shift
3. Democratization
4. Convergence
5. Strategic Imperative

And then I’ll wrap up with a tour of several MR futures from my book chapter:

1. Power to the People
2. Portal Power
3. E-Agency

It should be a fun and thought provoking session.

Here they are:

Big Idea #1: Beyond the Database

I alluded in the book to the fact that we have moved from a world where information is scarce to one where it is abundant and that this has huge implications for MR. One consequence is the idea of “the river” of information. Another is so-called “Big Data”. And yet another is the primacy of screening, sifting and analyzing over collecting. So far, so good. Any reasonably clued in observer gets this.

But, there are two very big problems we’re going to get hit with shortly that I don’t hear enough about.

Problem #1 is that the amount of information we have is going to explode in a way that will astonish even the experts. RFID tags and their progeny will be in EVERYTHING. Smart phone ubiquity will make user-generated content explode. Location-based data will explode. The “river” is going to be more like an ocean. Assuming privacy concerns in some quarters are navigated (and I think they will be), “Big data” is going to be very big business.

Problem #2 grows out of the success that we will have in solving the first problem. We will harness this information. We will make life better because of this – in targeted products, in better efficiency, and in wellness applications. But, the weak link is going to be our knowledge management systems. There is data. It becomes information. Then we turn it into knowledge. The challenge is going to be banking, and organizing this knowledge in ways that allow us humans to build on what we know. I think that three things will flow from this challenge:

1. We will spend a considerable amount of time developing insight or knowledge taxonomies (I spent the last year developing one for StrategyOne).

2. Insight Management will play a critical role in the coming decades.

3. We will build systems in which the insights in an insight management system are programmed to find and communicate with the right people in the organization. You’ll have an insight management dashboard capable of displaying insights by domain and by category (building blocks, gamechangers, outliers, etc.), but the insights will also find you. Individuals within the organization will be tagged for alerts of new insights in their focus areas. This will come to you in video-game format as an avatar contacting you with new knowledge you should absorb.

We talk about “databases” today. We will need to develop insights management systems and the language to describe them. Just as we use the term “database” today, we will have common words for this insights system in the future. The more success we have in uncovering new knowledge through “big data”, the more we will need to strengthen our insights management systems.

Big Idea #2: “Rateocracy”

Everyone recognizes words like “technocracy” (rule by a technical elite), “democracy” (rule by the people), “theocracy”, etc.

But freedom, ubiquitous personal computing, and social networks are ushering in “rateocracy” – rule by raters. Today you can rate restaurants (Yelp!), employers (Glassdoor.com), bosses (eBossWatch), eBay sellers, college professors (ratemyprofessors.com), and other people (honestly.com).

At some point everything and (almost) everyone will have a rating.

Don’t believe me?

Think about Facebook “likes” today. Now think about what can be done as Facebook expands this to other “verbs”.

Rateocracy will give marketers a very tight feedback loop. I suspect that it will drive the growth of RIMEing (rapid, in market experimentation). But, it will also drive the use of in the moment, follow-up research clarifying why a consumer rated a product or experience as X. This will make the current net promoter score look rather quaint.

RPM

Writing what became titled “The Futures of Marketing Research” and designated the epilogue was a labor of love.

In this epilogue I developed 22 potential futures for the research industry.

Interestingly, I faced two challenges in writing this chapter.

The first was the challenge of language. Thinking about potential futures means exploring things that have not been created yet. And one natural limitation is language. In some cases I had to invent language to describe some of the things that I anticipate. Some of these words and phrases were: RIMEing (rapid, in market experimentation), IIS (iterative Insight Streaming), ACS (anticipatory customer strategies), “nannytargeting”, etc.

The second challenge was overcoming my own fear that some of the industry scenarios I developed seemed a bit far fetched. But, here I leaned heavily on the famous futurist Jim Dator and his well known statement that “any useful statement about the futures should appear to be ridiculous.”

And this leads me to the six people that I need to thank for the epilogue.

First, I need to thank Jim Dator. His speech at The Market Research Event in Las Vegas several years ago was so interesting, divisive (MR folks either loved it or hated it) and thought provoking that I kept adding notes to my notes on his speech. He remains one of the most impressive pure thinkers I have ever shared a room with.

Next up is Peter Bishop at the University of Houston. Peter is a well-known, and well-published futurist. He is one of the few exceptionally smart people that I have met who has a kindness that matches his intellect. His one week course on strategic foresight was unforgetable and my fellow students only added to the experience.

Next is Ian Lewis at Cambiar. Ian penned the first chapter of Leading Edge Marketing Research with Simon Chadwick and has written extensively about NewMR. I learn something every time I talk with him. I was so impressed with him that I invited him to address my firm’s senior leaders.

Next is Lenny Murphy. Lenny has his eyes on the horizon of research more than anyone I know and his categorical knowledge of which firms are doing what is impressive. Plus, Lenny is just a kick-ass guy. I wish he was my neighbor.

And finally I owe a big thank you to Sparky Zivin and Barbara Coons (colleagues at StrategyOne). They proofed my writing and offered helpful and unvarnished feedback. I can honestly say that as I commute to work each morning I look forward to seeing them in the halls, at their desks and around the coffee machine.

My next piece will cover how my thinking has evolved since I wrote the epilogue.

http://www.strategyone.com/documents/CASRO%20Presentation%20Futures%20of%20MR.pdf

Here I outline the 5 Megatrends facing the industry and 22 plausible futures based on these trends.

It will be THE tour de force of nextgen market research, covering every new innovation in the field and rich with insights about the futures of the industry.

To learn more, check out Sage Publishing’s website: http://www.sagepub.com/books/Book235437/toc

I truly enjoyed writing the epilogue – “The Future of Marketing Research”

For a full list of authors, click here:
http://www.leadingedgemarketingresearch.com/id9.html

http://bit.ly/gFm0W8

I’m looking forward to discussing these topics, but especially privacy, at the Technology Driven Market Research Event.

“I think that in 10 years if you ask a question on a social network and you get an answer you will not know if a computer or a person has answered you.”

While my first reaction to reading this was to think back to my recollections of the so-called “Turing Test” and the “Chinese Room”, it occurred to me that the evolution of chatterbots will have an impact on market research.

These so-called Artificial Conversational Entities (chatterbots) could be deployed across social networking sites much like the old door-to-door interviewers of the early Elmo Roper and George Gallup era.

If a scenario like this comes to pass, research participants wouldn’t be able to distinguish between a real (human) interviewer and an AI interviewer asking them questions.

At present there is quite a bit of experimentation with “web scraping” technologies. Nielsen was famously criticized by a Wall Street Journal article for scraping sensitive consumer data. Despite the privacy and analytical challenges I expect web scraping to continue. But, will APING (AI chatterbots conducting “interviews” on social networking sites) replace SCRAPING (web scraping programs)? It is possible? Yes. Is it probable? I’m skeptical.

I suspect that chatterbots as research tools will have several challenges in their own right:

1. Chatterbots will need to disclose that they are conducting research.
2. Chatterbots may eventually be required to clearly identify online as chatterbots (and not humans).
3. Chatterbots could be deployed so easily that they could quickly (a) become a nuisance and (b) crash respondent participation levels.

These strike me as significant hurdles.

But, with all these challenges in mind I can think of at least two (2) likely and appropriate uses for chatterbots in research:

1. Chatterbots could be utilized within large MROC environments to keep niche discussions vibrant and help the moderator manage the site on a 24-7 basis. After all, a community manager has to sleep at some point.

2. Chatterbots could be used for inbound, online, customer satisfaction feedback. They could be programmed to get to the bottom of a customer’s complaint or praise in a conversational online format (like instant message) and could relay information in real-time using text analytics.

Even these scenarios seem to be years away.

In any event, it will be interesting to see this unfold.

Congratulations to the American Water team and their excellent case study:

“Tipping the Scales: How a New Research Tool Has Changed American Water’s New Business Development.”

The finalists were:

American Water
eBay
ANZ National Bank
Wrigley

Kudos to Bruno Levine, Digital Research and ThinkVine for the victor’s laurels.

The answer?

One very large MROC.

In what was easily the most interesting nuts and bolts presentation of the day, the folks in room 306A were treated to an in-depth view of the 15,000+ BBC Global Minds MROC created by Vision Critical.

Key takeaways:

1. An MROC is a perfect fit for the creation of a tight feedback community spanning the globe.
2. The client (BBC) accepted the tradeoff of rapid, self-selected, directional data at a lower cost relative to vastly more expensive, low incidence (but representative) survey research.
3. Community members engage in 4+ community acitvities per month.
4. The MROC GUI (called ReactionPlus) gives community members 10 instant-reactions (engaged, happy, curious, annoyed, excited, confused, bored, amused, disturbed and tuneout) that they can punch in real-time as they watch streaming news coverage. The result is a chart that looks much like an EKG with peaks and valleys registering things like excitement, annoyance, etc. If this sounds familiar, it should. It is the 21st century equivalent of dial testing.
5. These instant-reaction words were based on a large survey of open ended, volunteered words connecting to the BBC viewing experience. Ultimately, the number of words was narrowed to between 6 and 10, but the interface with 10 words gave community members greater choice and more enjoyment.

Moving away from the specific case and toward the general learning, this illustrates the strength and potential of insights communities. I anticipate MROCs becoming ubiquitous.

Instead of utilizing a massive intake survey to screen MROC participants and build rigorous demographic profiles, utilize a small intake survey and then add additional demographic questions after the community is launched. This can be done with brief, one question, demographic surveys once the community is launched.

For a great case study, see Dawn’s review of the SolarWinds work here. Dawn detailed this in depth this morning.