As I’ve noted in a previous post, I think the word is being used in a general way to mean “thinking ahead of the curve” and not in the specific sense used by professionals working in “strategic foresight.”

I do think that market research will become increasingly forward leaning and future-focused and anticipate that “anticipation” will be the next buzzword in this area.

But, where will MR need to go to truly harness foresight?

Method:
In terms of method, I think MR will adopt something like the framework developed by Peter Bishop and Andy Hines in their book Thinking About the Future. MR will do this by integrating existing research techniques with the creation and analysis of possible, probable and preferred futures developed through a STEEP analysis.

Tools:
Here I anticipate the mass adoption of prediction markets, realtime Delphi panels and crowdsourced futures engines like the ones being tested by the Institute for the Future.

Conclusion:
This may ultimately result in what I’m calling “futures dependent strategy”. FDS creates multiple futures scenarios based on the social, technological, economic, environmental and political drivers operating in the present. Then it requires that these futures are mapped in two dimensions – expected likelihood and potential impact. Once this is done, strategies can be developed to (a) achieve preferred futures, and (b) avoid or mitigate unfavorable futures.

But, this will challenge market research, because as many have noted “there are not future facts.” Stretching our thinking from the now into the future will move MR into a different space, well beyond our current comfort zones defined by surveys and focus groups.

I’ve been thinking and writing about this idea now for a while and I believe that the model for this market research future exists within a triangle formed by MROCs, closed innovation and design communities like those run by HYVE, and open-ended cooperative solving communities run by Innocentive.

I also assume that these will incorporate some form of a prediction market in order for those involved to rate the success likelihood of an innovation.

Then along comes this Fast Company article by Greg Lindsay on the 40th anniversary of the Toffler’s “FutureShock”, with the following:

Crowdsourcing becomes ubiquitous, evolving into a hybrid of networks like Innocentive’s and the tight-knit, ad hoc communities seen in massively multiplayer games like World of Warcraft. Technologies are no longer developed in-house. Corporate R&D becomes hyper-specialized, and the most successful become increasingly adept at integrating large problem-solver networks into their formal organizations. “Answer seekers” are linked with “problem solvers” across the globe.

This is simply wonderful and actually meshes with something I wrote in my freshly submitted chapter article for Leading Edge Marketing Research.

A new Boston Consulting Group report supports this thesis.

You can read it all here.

But, I highly recommend the grids in the appendix on pages 27 and 28. Here BCG charts what it sees as the evolution of the MR function:

1. Traditional MR Function
2. Business Contribution Team
3. Strategic Insight Organization
4. Strategic Foresight Organization (see also page 12)

Unfortunately, BCG posits that “almost 90% of companies are in stages 1 and 2″.

In my opinion, this means that over time there will be a much stronger demand for data-driven foresight tools (like Delphi panels and futures markets – possibly loaded into MROCs) in the United States. And this demand won’t be limited to the government and large institutions, as it has in the past.

Why will we see this demand?

Because corporations will come to the conclusion that the only way to jump ahead of competitors (BCG refers to “leapfrogging”) is to (1) study the possible, probable and preferred futures, (2) build plans and future business lines around this futuring, and (3) contingency plan for wildcards – those low probability, high impact events that bring change quickly.

In fact, I believe that at some point in the future most corporations will have small wild card futuring teams responsible for (a) identifying potential wildcards and (b) building contingency plans around them with the focus on turning wildcard events into significant business-building opportunities.

For a taste of what I mean by wildcards, click here.

It is worth a read.

Summary:

1. Start with a clear purpose in mind. So obvious, but yet so vital considering how infrequently it is done in organizations.
2. Set clear screening criteria for community members. The authors assert that in an “online group” of 100, one person will create content, ten will comment and 89 will simply read. Therefore, quality is critical.
3. Communicate the end goal and parameters of co-creation to keep people focused on task.
4. Create an open and non-competitive environment.
5. Motivate community members based on their affinity, interests and need for creative outlets. Do NOT rely solely on financial incentives.
6. Maintain quality by giving members the tools they need, gauging each member’s contributions, remove the unproductive, and keep the community busy with new tasks, directives and stimuli.

These recommendations seem to generally mesh with others regarding MROC best practice, but feel more specific to innovation. In fact, there is a managed element to these recommendations that is reminiscent of Delphi Panels (though not iterative).