My response to Melissa Pepper’s useful question about futures of the industry.

Some possible (as opposed to probable or preferable) futures:

1. The commoditized part of the business is called “market research” and it loses talent and ages dramatically. The non-commoditized part of the business is called “strategic foresight” (see BCG report), “data-driven consulting”, or “customer community.” The industry becomes fragmented, but many of those working in the industry evolve with society and technology into new roles.

For some more thinking on this:

http://www.futureofinsight.com/2010/01/strategic-foresight/

http://www.futureofinsight.com/2009/12/professional-line-blurring/

2. Google and Facebook become massive market research suppliers/panel managers.

http://www.futureofinsight.com/2010/01/new-entrants/

3. Millennials working in a number of other fields reinvent the industry, but it isn’t called “market research.”

http://www.futureofinsight.com/2010/01/mr-millennials/

4. Participant engagement drops to the point where survey research is simply undoable. Researchers turn their attention to simulations (games) that participants enjoy playing. These games replace traditional survey-based research.

http://www.futureofinsight.com/2010/01/lightening-the-respondent-burden-making-research-fun/

5. Online and community research coupled with the decline of the landline kills off traditional phone-based research. But, the brave new world of online surveys hits a big speedbump as (1) the data isn’t projectable and (2) privacy concerns and legislation increase the cost. The industry then goes “back to the future”, interviewing people face-to-face. Walmart and Starbucks become (through a JV) a participant intercept network that everyone tries to leverage.