As even the casual observer of the industry knows, this time of transition is being met with mourning, concern and excitement, often in the same individuals. This is how change works on us.

Although the reaction to this change is NOT generally binary, it is worth reviewing the positive and negative reactions to the changes swirling around the industry.

The Concerned:
Some are frustrated and concerned about all the change that has been happening. They think that our technical ability to collect and crunch data has far surpassed our ability to pull insights from this ever growing data tide. They feel that the quickening pace of business decision making is demanding research turnaround times that cannot possibly deliver quality data, insights and strategic recommendations. They are disoriented by the rise of digital social networks and the decline of traditional advertising vehicles which challenges the control and assumptions of the traditionally vertical stimulus-response paradigm with a horizontal word of mouth or peer to peer paradigm. They are worried about the heightened privacy ethos of consumers and lower research participation rates. In tandem with this, they are concerned about the migration of consumers from landlines to mobile phones and the twilight of the traditional RDD phone survey. As much as they might like online research for its speed, lower expense and ease, they are frustrated with quality concerns ranging from panel quality to so called “speeder” or “driver” respondents who race through the survey instrument. And, they are surprised to find new people trying to play in their sandbox (uninvited!). These new entrants are bringing wonderful, but often disruptive, new technologies (remarkably simple web-based survey platforms, hosted online communities, online dial testing, eye tacking, online collaging tools, etc.), new tools (net promoter score), and new skills (management consulting). Add to this the economic anxiety from the 2008 economic meltdown and you have a toxic stew of stress, fear and worry.

The Optimistic:
On the other hand, some are more excited now than they have ever been about this business. At a macro level these individuals are excited by the trend toward data driven strategy best explained in Ian Ayres’ book “Super Crunchers.” They’ve complained for years about the flaws in emotional or intuitional decision making and are excited by the dawn of a new era in data based decision making. In addition, the technological explosion since the mid 1990’s has given many industries, but especially the market research industry, an amazing new array of research options. Powerful new text analytics and hosted online communities are giving us passive “listening posts” that provide unprompted insights. Besides delivering niche audiences that were at one time too expensive to be reached, online research is now delivering wonderful new simulated shelf test options, rapid cover testing for magazines, dial testing for speeches, commercials or debates and doing these things faster and cheaper than the previous alternatives. As one final example, eye tracking hardware is providing a level of behavioral insight heretofore unimagined. And it’s not all just high tech toys that send the pulse pounding. Old methodologies are getting new looks. Ethnographies certainly seem to be making a comeback, as do the kind of lengthy in-depth interviews needed for some of the newest collaging exercises. I call this trend “deep qual.” And finally, there are the advances in the field of behavioral economics and biometric research techniques (electroencephalographic measurement of brain waves, fMRI, galvanic skin response, heart rate, facial response, and pupil dilation) which call into question the traditional idea of the purely rational man and detail how emotional mechanisms in the brain bend decision making.

I place myself in the optimistic camp.

The industry has plenty of challenges, but there will always be a need to hear the voice of the customer, test the viability of new products and build communications campaigns based on solid data.

It is entirely possible that market research as we currently know it (the market structure, the name, etc.) will morph into something very different within the next five years. But, what the possible, probable and perferred futures look like is still fairly hazy.